Program Profile: Rockford (Ill.) Area Violence Elimination Network (RAVEN)

This is a parole-based, focused deterrence intervention. The goal of the program is to reduce community-level firearm violence. The program is rated Effective. The intervention was associated with statistically significant reductions in measures of total gun violence, total non-gun violence, and total violence, compared with the synthetic control group.

An Effective rating implies that implementing the program is likely to result in the intended outcome(s).

Program Goals

The Rockford Area Violence Elimination Network (RAVEN) is a parole-based focused deterrence intervention in Illinois. The program was implemented by the Rockford Police Department in March 2013, in collaboration with various criminal justice agencies, the Office of the Mayor, social service providers, and community partners. The goal of the program is to reduce community-level firearm violence.

Program Components/Target Population

Following prior focused deterrence programs (also known as “pulling levers” strategies), the RAVEN program communicates a multipronged message to recently released individuals on parole who are high-risk and had prior histories of violent crimes. These messages, delivered through call-in meetings, informs individuals on parole that they will face increased sanctions for future criminal behavior, while also providing connections to community-based services.

Individuals who are high-risk are required to attend the call-in meetings as a condition of their parole. These call-in meetings, which last 1 hour, include several components. First, individuals are welcomed back to the community by the mayor or a member of the clergy. The welcome-back message informs the individuals on parole that they have paid their debt to society and now have the opportunity to contribute positively to the community by not engaging in further crime.

Next, law enforcement personnel inform the individuals that they (along with a coalition of other agencies) are taking active steps to monitor individuals on parole who are high-risk to reduce gun crime, and that future offending would result in more-severe sanctions. Individuals who are high-risk are also informed about the community-based services available to assist with their return to the community, including employment services, job skills training, and education opportunities. Finally, community leaders deliver a moral voice message to individuals on parole, underscoring the importance of reducing firearm crime and victimization.

At the end of the call-in meetings, case managers attempt to enroll individuals on parole into customized programs to support them during their reentry process.

Program Theory

Because the RAVEN program is based on the logic of focused deterrence, its theoretical foundation is deterrence theory, though it also incorporates procedural justice principles. Deterrence theory posits that crimes can be prevented when the cost of committing the crime is perceived to outweigh its benefits (Braga et al., 2001). The program increases the perceived costs of committing crimes by informing individuals who are high-risk that punishment for future crimes will be swift, certain, and severe. Similarly, the unified message that details specific sanctions for continued engagement in crime, draws on principles of procedural justice. It is believed that delivering a message in a non-threatening manner, outlining the sanctions that will occur should crime continue, and offering individuals access to services will increase the legitimacy of law enforcement, which, in turn, can increase compliance with the law (Corsaro and Engel, 2015; Papachristos et al., 2012; Tyler, 1997).

Study 1

Clark–Moorman, Rydberg, and McGarrell (2018) used a quasi-experimental design to evaluate whether the Rockford (Ill.) Area Violence Elimination Network (RAVEN) program was associated with a decrease in community-level firearm violence. The study authors received offense-level National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data from the Rockford Police Department. The analysis was based on data from 2010 to 2014 and focused specifically on the effects of the intervention on serious violence, including homicides, aggravated assaults, and robberies. Given the intervention’s emphasis on reducing firearm violence, the evaluation distinguished between firearm and non-firearm offenses within the NIBRS data.

The intervention period lasted from March 2013 through the end of 2014. During this time 2,746 individuals on parole were released from prison to Winnebago County, which is where Rockford, Ill., is located. In total there were 245 individuals on parole invited to participate in the RAVEN program. Given that attendance was required as a condition of supervision, there was a high attendance rate (n = 224, or 91 percent). The 224 meeting attendees had a history of violent crime; 75 percent were on parole after being incarcerated for a violent offense, and 50 percent had recently served time for a firearm-related offense. Attendees represented 22 percent of all persons convicted of violent offenses in Winnebago County and 33 percent of those released on a firearm-related offense.

The statistical models used to evaluate the RAVEN program were designed to test for an instantaneous program effect on violent crime. The pre-intervention period ranged from January 2010 through February 2013 (38 months). The post-intervention period ranged from March 2013 through December 2014 (22 months). Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) models were used to estimate the counterfactual (i.e., what would have happened to gun and non-gun violence in Rockford had the intervention never been implemented?). BSTS models construct synthetic counterfactual time series from a donor pool of control cases. The average treatment effect on the treated cases can be estimated by examining the difference between the treatment unit and the synthetic control. Overall, BSTS models include a time-series component and a regression component to model both temporal changes and the impacts of the intervention.

To construct the counterfactual, the researchers identified 216 U.S. cities in the same population range as Rockford (100,000 to 250,000 inhabitants). NIBRS data were then used to build monthly time series based on firearm- and nonfirearm-related offenses for the pre-intervention period (January 2010 through February 2013). Cities that did not have complete data for all study years were dropped; this resulted in a total of 59 potential comparison cities. Monthly time series from each of these 59 cities were used to create the counterfactual for each outcome (e.g., gun homicide, gun robbery, gun assault, total gun violence, nongun homicide, nongun robbery, nongun assault, total nongun violence, and total violence). The CrimeSolutions review of this study focused on the effects of the intervention on total gun violence, total nongun violence, and total violence. No subgroup analysis was conducted.

Although the program was designed to provide case management and social support services to participants, only 29 percent of those who participated in call-in meetings enrolled in these services. Given this low enrollment, the primary component of the RAVEN program being evaluated was the deterrent message intervention and not the community-based services component. Put differently, the analysis focused primarily on the impact of the call-in meetings on violence.

These sources were used in the development of the program profile:

These sources were used in the development of the program profile:

Following are CrimeSolutions-rated programs that are related to this practice:

Focused Deterrence Strategies

This practice (also referred to as “pulling-levers policing”) includes problem-oriented policing strategies that follow the core principles of deterrence theory. The strategies target specific criminal behavior committed by a small number of individuals who chronically commit offenses, such as youth gang members or those who repeatedly commit violent offenses, who are vulnerable to sanctions and punishment. The practice is rated Promising for reducing crime.

Evidence Ratings for Outcomes

Crime & Delinquency - Multiple crime/offense types

Problem-Oriented Policing

These analytic methods are used by police to develop crime prevention and reduction strategies. The practice is rated Promising and led to a significant decline in crime and disorder.

Evidence Ratings for Outcomes

Crime & Delinquency - Multiple crime/offense types

Reducing Gun Violence

Reducing gun violence is a persistent public policy concern for communities, policymakers and leaders. To reduce gun violence, several strategies have been deployed including public health approaches (e.g., training and safe gun storage); gun buy-back programs; gun laws; and law enforcement strategies. The practice is rated Promising for reducing violent gun offenses.

Evidence Ratings for Outcomes

Crime & Delinquency - Violent offenses

Why might a practice's outcome ratings differ from the ratings of specific programs encompassed by that practice?