Study
Lawton and colleagues (2005) examined the effects of Operation Safe Streets on the crime rates in localized areas in Philadelphia, Pa., and citywide, using data provided by the Philadelphia Police Department (PPD) to the Philadelphia Daily News newspaper.
The intervention group consisted of 214 high-crime areas identified over a period of 139 weeks, with 121 weeks of crime data before the intervention and 18 weeks of crime data during Operation Safe Streets. The authors additionally selected 73 comparison areas, which also reported high-rates of drug crime but which were not targeted by the intervention. This comparison group was used only descriptively and not in any statistical tests. This was because direct comparison was not possible due to the intervention areas being identified specifically for being the highest drug-crime areas. The data used contained all reported drug and violent crimes from Jan. 1, 2000, through Aug. 31, 2002, with Operation Safe Streets being implemented on May 2, 2002.
The study used a time series design using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (or ARIMA) models to establish the impact of the intervention on violent crime, homicide, and drug crime citywide and at the intervention level. The homicide category included all homicides and manslaughter; the violent crime category included all rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults in addition to homicides; and the drug crime category included all types of selling, possession, and manufacturing of illegal drugs. Weekly counts of each type of crime were aggregated and coded using Philadelphia’s Uniform Crime Report codes.
The study additionally used Geographic Information Software to geocode the recorded crimes throughout the observation period. This allowed a further time series analysis of the local impact of the intervention, but also to look at potential benefits and displacement effects in adjoining neighborhoods. For the geographically focused localized analyses, weekly crime counts were transformed into weekly counts/km² to account for the differences in sizes of areas. An analysis of homicide counts in localized areas was not possible due to a small number of homicide cases.
This study was limited to the first 4 months of intervention data, which did not permit for analysis of the potential for waning program effects or lasting effects posttreatment. No subgroup analysis was conducted. However, the study authors additionally looked at spatial diffusion in surrounding areas.